Hello, Cleveland!

March 14, 2016  Monday

You add a necessary point, and one I meant to also include in my letter yesterday.  The universal protections of political assembly you note should always be ensured.  Trump’s complaint that his supporters were denied speech is valid; whether or not he is a consistent supporter of speech is another matter for another time.  But if I may quickly aside, I can honestly commend him on his unfailing willingness to at the very least be accessible to the media.  The answers can be a walk in the park, but day after day there he is, taking another question from Jake Tapper.  I secretly think there are, besides the authentic article, four more be-suited clones zipping around the country and onto your TV screen.

But back to the idea of the boundaries of demonstration.  I don’t know if you ever run across the old film The Blues Brothers on television.  It came out in 1980.  An odd, more minor plot line it concerns Henry Gibson leading a squad of “lllinois Nazis” after the musicians.  It seems an odd choice now, and one made purely for extreme comedic foils. Yet they are a part of the film because of real events that occurred shortly before the movie was produced.  A chapter National Socialists in Skokie wished to rally in the Illinois town, and the eventually case went to the Supreme Court.  Perhaps you remember this? They won the right to march.  I bring this up as an example of why all should be able to assemble, speak and exchange ideas, which was a part of the ruling.  (And I do not intend to draw a direct parallel between the case subjects in 1977 and today with this example).  Citizens should be able to congregate and rally, and it would be best for everyone if protestors took it upon themselves to counter the meeting outside, or always at a distance.   This morning I watched a 60 minutes episode from 1968, that discussed the boiling over of George Wallace rallies, a longtime Southern Democrat that run with moderate success as an independent.  Maybe this era will be the gauzy good ol’ days too.

Anyway, here are my predictions for tomorrow:

Florida: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Illinois: Trump
Missouri: Might be close?  Cruz for the fun of it, but not by much over Trump, if true.

And finally, pivotal Ohio: It has swung between a Trump/Kasich tie and a minimum Kasich lead.  Does it   really help K to have Romney stump for him?  Maybe any other normal year.  But let’s give the edge to the hometown guy, Kasich.

If this is how it shakes out, there remains a path for a negotiated convention.  This would be the opening for (fill in the blank with “whatever flavor you like best”) to suddenly become the candidate (“Vanilla?”).   This all might not look or smell like True Representative Democracy—now with orange zest?, and would make one wonder rightly (like a year-long played game, the board and pieces suddenly flung to the ground) why there’s a Plan B-Failsafe, (or actually, just a common sense alternative procedure when confronted with non-consensus) instead of simply putting the gold star The One Closest To 1,237.  All evidence I have ever humanly witnessed suggests Trump would not simply fade into that good night if ahead by a single delegate.  And Trump (I can’t believe I am writing this a second time) would be entirely correct. His (larger) supporters would be correct. One may not like what he says, or how he  says it, but he has played within the democratic, electoral rules.  I really don’t know how you make “We’ll take it from here, you crazy masses you,” sound good, but that draft is being written right now.    In the end, the established rules state the eventual release of delegates may then vote according to a new consensus from home, or by their own considered whim.  This is the reason for a John Kasich, for example, to do well tomorrow (but what, after Ohio?) to make a Cleveland case in July.

If it appears that Trump may be denied, the GOP convention will very quickly embrace our above idea of separating themselves from the (rightly flummoxed) protestors– a possible majority of Republican primary voters—at their doors.  And then what?  Talk about being between a big, golden rock and a hard place.  The simplest escape plan to avoid this unenviable future is a sudden and overwhelming burning, yearning  for Ted Cruz.  This is the good option.

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